Revenue Trajectories
$B · 2023 – 2030EBase Case
40% haircut applied to 2026–2030E internal forecasts
Bull / Internal Case
Company-stated internal targets, no haircut
EV / Revenue Multiples
Current EV ÷ Each Year's Revenue| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case (40% Haircut on Forward Estimates) | ||||||||
| OpenAI EV / Revenue | 425x | 141.7x | 47.2x | 47.2x | 22.8x | 11.8x | 7.1x | 5.0x |
| Anthropic EV / Revenue | 3,800x | 380x | 152x | 35.2x | 11.5x | 6.7x | 4.3x | 2.9x |
| Bull / Internal Case (No Haircut) | ||||||||
| OpenAI EV / Revenue (Bull) | 425x | 141.7x | 47.2x | 28.3x | 13.7x | 7.1x | 4.3x | 3.0x |
| Anthropic EV / Revenue (Bull) | 3,800x | 380x | 152x | 21.1x | 6.9x | 4.0x | 2.6x | 1.7x |
| EV: OpenAI $850B (Mar 2026). Anthropic $380B Series G (Feb 2026). Multiples = current EV ÷ respective year revenue. | ||||||||
Revenue Detail
$B · Both Cases| Company | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case — 40% Haircut on 2026–2030E Internal Forecasts | ||||||||
| OpenAI | $2B | $6B | $18B | $18B | $37.2B | $72B | $120B | $170.4B |
| Anthropic | $0.1B | $1B | $2.5B | $10.8B | $33B | $57B | $88.8B | $132B |
| Bull / Internal Case — Company-Stated Targets | ||||||||
| OpenAI (Bull) | $2B | $6B | $18B | $30B | $62B | $120B | $200B | $284B |
| Anthropic (Bull) | $0.1B | $1B | $2.5B | $18B | $55B | $95B | $148B | $220B |
Key Takeaways
Genflare AnalysisBoth companies carry extreme EV/Revenue multiples today — OpenAI at 47x and Anthropic at 152x on 2025 revenues. Multiples compress dramatically in base case scenarios, with OpenAI reaching ~5x and Anthropic ~3x by 2030E.
Anthropic shows the steeper growth curve in relative terms — from $2.5B in 2025 to $132B in 2030E (base), a 52x increase over five years if internal targets are directionally accurate. Its lower current EV makes the 2030 multiple more defensible.
Applying a 40% haircut to internal forecasts reflects the typical gap between AI company targets and realized revenue. Even haircut figures imply extraordinary growth: OpenAI base case 2030 of $170B is still 9.4x its 2025 revenue.
The spread between bull and base widens substantially after 2026. OpenAI's internal 2030 target of $284B vs. the $170B base represents a $114B gap — the largest uncertainty band in this model and a key variable for long-term valuation arguments.
Sources & Methodology
- 2023–2025 actuals/near-actuals: OpenAI from company blog + CFO statement (Jan 2026); Anthropic from Saastr, LA Times, Reuters.
- 2026–2030 internal forecasts: OpenAI from Bloomberg/Fortune/The Information leaks (Feb 2026); Anthropic from Yahoo Finance/X leaks (Jan 2026).
- Base case applies a 40% haircut to all internal forward estimates (2026E onward); 2023–2025 used as-is.
- Anthropic 2025 recognized revenue estimated ~$2.5B (linear ramp from $1B ARR start-2025 to $9B ARR exit; haircut for ramp timing).
- EV: OpenAI $850B post-money (Mar 2026 round). Anthropic $380B post-money Series G (Feb 2026).